Here are some observations from yesterday’s Tigers @ Phillies game at Bright House Field in Clearwater:
- Detroit is going to have a scary-balanced lineup if everyone stays healthy. Everything lines up perfectly for lefty-righty matchups with Jackson, Boesch, Cabrera, Fielder, Young. If Alex Avila can get back to the way he started in 2011 and Ryan Raburn finally starts to break out like I expect him to, this team is going to score a ton. Buster Olney mentioned yesterday that they lead the Grapefruit League in runs scored/game with an average of over SIX. Don’t think they can quite keep that up, but it should be close. Imagine if they still had Victor Martinez this year!
- Did you see that ball take a crazy hop and hit Miguel Cabrera in the face? Of course we had to watch it like, 10 times on instant replay…I think I cringed each and every time the ball made impact. He was immediately removed from the game…which is a shame because I was really looking forward to seeing how he handled the hot corner. When I first saw it, and I immediately noticed the gushing blood, I thought it hit his eye…luckily, it hit his cheek and I believe his sunglasses absorbed a bit of the blow. I doubt that it will affect him for anything more than the rest of Spring Training, and by Opening Day we’ll still know him as probably the scariest hitter in the American League.
Here’s a link to the play in question.
- Without Howard, Utley, and to a lesser extent Polanco, the Phillies lineup is going to struggle to keep up with the likes of Miami and Atlanta. Of course, having three aces on the mound should really help with that…but Rollins to me looked like he lost a little bat speed and while Ty Wigginton provides some flexibility, he doesn’t really excel either offensively or defensively. As long as him and Jim Thome can pop a few homers and Victorino gets on base, they’re still going to be fine. Freddy Galvis had a solid day at second replacing Chase Utley hitting a triple and driving in two, but I thought his approach was a little aggressive and one game is not indicative of overall performance (especially when Scherzer absolutely imploded in the one inning the Phillies scored)
- Bright House Field is a great park. They have some varied concessions (including the obligatory cheesesteak stand) and a rockin’ bar over in left field that stayed pretty full even after the game ended. Parking wasn’t an issue for me at all, but it’s hard for me to judge given that I left about an hour after the game ended due to packing up all of my gear (and the post-game pizza!) On a beautiful day, it’s hard to beat.
- Did anyone see Hot Zone graphics appear on the broadcast? I think we were able to get it in 3 times. What did you think? Does it seem like something you’d be interested in seeing more often? Leave a comment below!
Phil. is inundated with injuries. Like the Yankees, it’s an old team and if it wasn’t for their pitching it would be worse…
You’re right. The NL East is going to be a blast to watch this year. Watch out for those Nationals!
You mean the 1-11 Nationals this Spring? They SHOULD do better in the regular season-(they can’t get much worse..lol)
Okay, I was overly harsh. The sonctant get rid of Brown, start Mayberry, nonsense is a trigger for me. But -(1) Rangers probably wouldn’t do it. I like Brown a lot, but (a) teams shy away from prospect-for-prospect trades, and (b) SS prospects are particularly valuable, especially given how thin the position is at the major league level. Add to that, as absurd as the overreactions on this site to problems with Brown are much more perceived than real -his adjustment issues (mainly fielding) probably have hurt his trade value a little. Of course that makes it the WORST time to trade him, selling low.(2) Profar is at least a year away, maybe 2, so he isn’t an answer for 2012.(3) Mayberry look, I like him. He’s a fine 4th OF, and if the team went with a platoon (there are reasons they probably won’t), he would be great in a platoon role. But I’m not even close to sold on him as a full time player. I hate to keep bringing up sample size, but he has only 238 PA this season. More to the point, given his career minor league platoon splits, he has only 147 PA against righties. And he does have a signficant split, if less than prior performance would lead to expect. Note also that since he has been used in a semi-platoon role, while he does have more AB against R than L, proportionately (compared to a full time player) he has more against lefties. As a full time player, that would not be true. Even if he otherwise maintained his better-than-expected 2011 performance, as a regular, with a normal proportion of AB against righties, his line would be a little worse. Still pretty good, but as I say, I don’t buy even that.Now, if the Phillies didn’t have any options, taking a chance on Mayberry might be a decent call. Certainly this year I’d rather have him out there than Ibanez. But they have an option Brown. Who still is almost certainly going to be a better player than Mayberry, possibly much better.So three reasons why it’s a bad idea. Let’s throw this in as a final thought: as a general rule, any speculation by a fan about a trade for a player that isn’t clearly on the market is at best a waste of time. Especially whe you’re talking about a top prospect, which are traded, but usually for a vetran player with value.
Ron, no offense, but while the rerlay wrong part of your statement certainly is a justified charaterization with regard to certain opinions held by the statistically literate crowd (IMO with good reason), the that is what SABRs do comment shows very poor reading comprehension on your part. If anything, the statistically literate people around here have MORE respect for non-statistical evidence than do some of the less statistically literate, who often insist that raw stats, out of context & in small sample sizes, trump all other evidence including scouting reports (for example J-Rod. It isn’t the SABR crowd who dismisses reservations fromt the scouts). And to a certain extent that’s what your original post does, though I realize you were being sarcastic. But while you may have THOUGHT you were mocking the SABR people, instead you were mocking people who have an unsophisticated understanding of statistics.Now I will agree that the statistically literate among us are rather dismissive of one particular type of non statistical argument the notion that certain players are gutsy, gritty guys who intagible their teams to victory. We also tend to be sceptical of clutch arguments (though IMO some stat guys are a little too dismissive of those arguments in certain respects). But rejecting one or two specific types of non statistical evidence is not the same as rejecting all or even most non statistical evidence.But to prove that yes, we can be arrogant, I’ll posit the following as indiputably true:(1) Certain aspects of modern statistical analyisis are so firmly grounded in logic and research that they are as indisputable as the fact that the sun rises in the east. These truths have been internalized by the baseball establishment, even teams such as the Phillies who ostensibly don’t use modern statistical analysis. (e.g., the value of BB) (Of course there are still some ignorant dinosaurs, cough Dusty Baker, cough.)(2) Certain other aspects of modern statistical analysis are more controversial and open to debate. (e.g., fielding metrics.)(3) There are also certain things that statistical analysis can’t do, or can’t do well. While statistical literacy is very helpful in evaluating prospects, I think even the biggest advocate of modern statistical analysis will concede that scouting plays a huge role in evaluating propspects, that statistical analysis can’t replace that, and that even statistical anslysis and scouting, taken together, is going to be often wrong about prospects because of factors that are either random or unknowable. Again, #3 doesn’t mean that statistical analysis plays no role in prospect evaluation far from it. But it does mean that stats in that context are less predictive of future performance than they are in the major league context.
Oh, simply re-sign Rollins for what Philly wants. It’s all so very, very smiple, you see. But, what if Rollins doesn’t sign for what Philly wants, and wants to sign for what he wants. And some other team is willing to pay Rollins what he wants. Then you got to look dollars and cents.Now, i figured awhile back, before the acquisition of Pence, that after the expiration of applicable contracts and such, there would be a net loss in salary committments of 39 million prior to next season. This was absolutely true and correct, and stands above the other attempts at such, which were doctored as they went along according to the reasoning well, I see Gload and Schneider make so much as reserve 1B, OF, PH and C respectively, so I figure we must pay at least that much to fill those positions, or we be goin’ downhill . Forget that, no room.I figure they can retain Pence for 10 million which will bring the net reduction to 29 million, and then you look to Hamels, maybe Oswalt, maybe SS, maybe closer, Mayberry contract had expired so you bring him back, and maybe another OF. Hamels made 10 million in past season, so , maybe for another 5 million you can get the next season in as part of long-term deal or arbitration, maybe it takes up to 10 million in increase for long term, but for this I say another 5 miillion from the current 10 million a season gets it, that takes it to 24 million in net reduction at that point. Oswalt, if healthy, you bring him back I say , because you don’t give away a top pitcher. Since Houston paid 11 million of Oswalt’s salary this season he cost around 5 million net, original thing had paying 2 million buy-out, so you don’t pay that, and that deducts 7 million from Oswalt’s 16 million salary, so that adds 9 million to payroll, so that leaves 13 million in net reduction. At that point , team could retain Rollins or Madson , or other top closer, but not both. Madson type A free agent and Rollins type B, last time I looked. So, you offer arbitration to both, taking a chance on a small payroll increase if both accept. If both decline, you go with Galvis and Michael Martinez at SS and leading off, alternate each game until it gets crucial. You go with Contreras penciled in at closer to start next season with Bastardo ready as LH alternate closer and you also add Aumont as a RH alternate closer,add Stutes, Savery can shift between long man and a LH option and alternative pinch hitter, and I guess you have Blanton as alternate long man and RH relief, and the 7th in bullpen can be Herndon or Schwimer to start off , with others in minors as alternates on this. (Kendrick non-tendered in this scenario) If either Rollins or Madson accepts arbitration you scratch one of these scenarios. This does not deal with bringing in outside help, so if it gets down to this you pick one scenario, or you take a chance with declining Oswalt, and then you can sign Pence,Hamels Rollins, and Madson on a one year basis.